Tip's myth and waiting for the fat lady....

As the co-author of an American government textbook, election nights are always a bit more interesting -- especially in years when we have a new edition due out in a few weeks. In fact, the entire publication process is geared to the election -- everything ready to go except for some pages in election-sensitive chapters, and the day after an election is when the gaps are filled.... Since my portions of the text are not impacted by the election results in the short term (I cover subjects like constitution, federalism, bureaucracy, public policy), I have little to do today except mull over how the election outcome might impact on the next edition (which is likely to be in two years....) Our book is unique in its focus on what we term the "myths and realities" of US government and politics, and each chapter is built around one or two such myths. For example, in the constitution chapter we focus on the "myth of the living constitution". We do not try to debunk all the myths, but rather stress the role myths play in US government and politics and some of the "reality" and countering myths at work. Its a neat theme that seems to have grown stronger with each of the seven previous editions.... As my colleagues Alan Gitelson and Bob Dudley work on putting the the finishing touches on the 8th edition, I am already thinking about a new myth that we might integrate into edition 9 -- the myth of "all politics is local". The famous Tip O'Neill observation is the perfect myth for our textbook -- it is true at all times, except when it isn't. This year the "nationalization" (or Iraq-ization) of the mid-term elections seems an appropriate description of what happened, although the situation was much more complicated than that. Two "realities" need to be stressed -- first, that only (so far) 27 of the 435 House seats changed hands (in terms of party) and that several of those changes can be attributed to local rather than national concerns. (For interesting piece on incumbency advantage, see here.) Nevertheless, at the macro-political level, there certainly was a national feel to the results. It is certainly hard to explain the loss of Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island or the blue-ing of New Hampshire unless you factor in the anti-war sentiment of voters this year. In those cases, relatively popular and effective representatives were defeated who would otherwise and at other times be considered incumbent shoe-ins. Unlike 1994, which seemed to be a "throw the bums out" election untethered to any specific issue, this was a "send them a message" election that was clearly driven by the Iraq War gorilla sitting at the dinner table.... And with Montana and Virgina still undecided as yet, the fat lady has not yet taken the stage.... Tags: 2006 midterm elections, US politics, Lincoln Chaffee, New Hampshire politics, incumbency, American government, Tip O'Neill, all politics is local, nationalization of politics, Democrats, Republicans, Mel Dubnick, accountabilitybloke

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Democracy in the air....

It is no surprise that there are lots of democracy-related items floating around out there. The US mid-term elections are coming up, and the media-driven anxiety is generating reflections as well as concerns. Three items struck me as particularly interesting.... NPR ran a series last week about our political language during the war on terror, and among the words focused on by Guy Raz was "democracy". Interesting stuff.... American Public Radio's Future Tense ran a piece last week on the idea of a "government-run voting portal" (in the mode of e-Democracy) put forward by Allison Fine, the author of Momentum. Interviewer Jon Gordon did a terrific job of asking tough questions in what otherwise might have been a five minute "puff piece". And on Weekend America, most of the two hours this week was devoted to election related stories, but most interesting was story on the impact of place on voting.... As for me, voted absentee this AM since I will be in New Hampshire (where I work) from dawn to 10PM tomorrow. Given the trends and inclinations in Massachusetts (where I reside), my vote will hardly make a difference. But this is a year when voting is less a rational act than an expression of anger or frustration (see here for interesting coverage on voting)Publish. I think the turn out will reflect that more than the outcome.... Tags: voting, democracy, politics, US politics, 2006 elections, NPR, Future Tense, Weekend America, Jon Gordon, Guy Raz, Allison Fine, e-Democracy, accountabilitybloke, Mel Dubnick

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Blue New Hampshire

Like most political scientists, I have been intrigued by this mid-year election. Putting aside my own prejudices (which is really tough these days) and trying to assume a neutral (even skeptical) stance, I have not been carried away with by the punditry which that sees this as a "wave" election equivalent to 1974 or 1994. However, after a meeting yesterday I am beginning to think that this may be a wave -- and perhaps more substantial than most commentators are willing to project. Yesterday I briefly sat in on an informal weekly lunch meeting of some folks who are keen and expert observers of the local (meaning statewide) political scene in New Hampshire. Although I reside in Massachusetts -- the state regarded as politically the blue-est of the blue, despite its tendency to elect Republican governors -- I work in "purple-ish" New Hampshire, a state inclined much more toward "red-ness" ("Live Free or Die!" is the famous state motto). (See here for blue-red info.) But NH is also as proudly "political" as any in the US (the presidential primary is a major part of the culture as well as the economy), and the attention paid to politics comes (literally) with the territory. So when you see trends shaping in NH, you know that something is going on. And the data circulating around the lunch table certainly indicates a trend in the form of a potential shift of NH from toss-up red to firmly blue. Andy Smith, director of the UNH survey research center, circulated the latest tracking poll his folks had completed for WMUR-TV, the only major TV station in NH. There was no doubt that the numbers were in the Democratic Party's favor -- so much so that there is a good chance they will add both houses of the state legislature to their control of the governor's office, and have a good shot at replacing both GOP US House members with Democrats. If those numbers are right -- and Smith's shop is pretty damn competent -- then the only somewhat Republican-leaning state in New England is about to make the northeast US truly and solidly blue. It is not hard to speculate that if either of the US Senate seats were up this year (both held by popular GOP incumbents), they would certainly be vulnerable.... Bottom line -- and relying on these indicators from tiny NH -- is that this election may actually be one of those watershed (I would not yet say "critical") events in US politics. After all, if NH is going blue, then it is likely that many more traditionally red states are doing the same. Perhaps my distorted view of NH as a true-red state is drawing me to unwarranted speculations. But, oh, wouldn't it be interesting.... (Follow-up: Andy Smith's analysis of his tracking poll also showed up in this AM's Boston Globe...) Tags: New Hampshire, New England, US politics, mid-term elections, Democrats, Republicans, Congress, state politics, University of New Hampshire, political polls, 2006 elections, Mel Dubnick, accountabilitybloke

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